doi:10.3849/1802-7199

HOW (NOT) TO PREDICT THE FUTURE?

Analysis of several pioneering studies in the field of Czech political and security scenario-building

Miroslav KALOUS

Predictive analysis is rare in the field of Czech security studies. For this reason, scenarios of world politics by Institute of International Relations (IIR) (2012–2017) as well as predictions by the think-tank European values (2016) constitute pioneering works worthy of attention. The article analyses these scenarios, focusing on their methodological aspects. The articles concludes by noting that IIR’s scenarios are a welcome contribution to the field but the same cannot be said about scenarios of European values.

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