Defence and strategy

Slavomír HORÁK

When Taliban rule was overthrown in autumn 2001 Afghanistan was to start a new pattern of peace-building process. However, experts on Afghanistan pointed out several problematic aspects of Afghan post-war society (criminalization, distribution of arms, disaster economy with narcotic production within failed state etc.). These problems determined the key tasks of both newly installed Afghan government and international community (often viewed as “strangers on Afghan soil”). The status of the above mentioned points are analyzed in the article within the chapters dealing with politics, economy, army, drugs, raising of military opposition and the role of outside players in the country. All of these aspects move around insolvable vicious circles and nobody is able to cleave them in its complexity. They also hamper any peace settlement in the country for a long-term perspective. The consequences of analyzed vicious circles for future development of Afghanistan seem to be rather pessimistic. Despite certain positive trends of peace-building process, the overall situation moves on to onward deterioration. The presence of foreign troops provokes more attacks from opposition field commanders. Western armies have limited maneuvering capabilities and they are not able to neutralized negative propaganda against themselves. However, it keeps at least some stability within the country and without them the Karzai’s regime will be probably overthrown. Legitimate government is not able to manage the country, but its fall would probably lead in the new round of internal conflict in the country.