Potential risks of the European arms control process in the context of the Russian-Georgian conflict

Gabriel KOVÁCS

The paper addresses the risks and consequences of the suspension of the Russian Federation’s commitments stemming from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) on the process of arms control and the European security environment. It deals with the security dilemma and securitisation in general as well as with the assertive posture of Russia in the post-Soviet region, reminded through the Russian – Georgian conflict in August 2008. The role of the CFE Treaty as the cornerstone of the European security is elaborated as well as its importance for NATO. The paper deals with the negative consequences of the Russian suspension on the future of the CFE regime and European security environment. There are options suggested for eliminating the malicious consequences through promoting co-operation and confidence building between NATO and Russia, currently at freezing point, the worst state since the end of the Cold War. Should the benign measures fail to deliver, with the geopolitics back, adequate military capabilities to counter advanced adversary might be considered.

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