doi:10.3849/1802-7199

Perspectives of development of the insurgency in Afghanistan and the neighbouring Pakistani areas

Petr ZELINKA

This analysis aims at prediction of the political development in Afghanistan, especially the future of insurgency in this country and neighbouring Pakistani areas. Premises of this work are threefold: it is necessary to include Pakistan in the analysis of the insurgency, dimension of legitimacy is as important as military dimension when it comes to insurgency and that succesful negotiations with Taliban are currently impossible. At first, we describe geographical and demographical determinants influencing the conflict. After a brief historical excurse we shall continue with analysis of actors taking part in the insurgency. Doing this we should get an insight of the situation, which will be broadened by using Manwaring paradigm, which conceptualizes the main factors which have impact on the phenomenon of insurgency. These factors will be extrapolated – creating the first scenario of possible development, we will then add another two predictive scenarios. Main conclusion of the work is that despite possible increase in numbers of military personnel or even after boosting the legitimacy the insurgency will not fade away as it would require systematical effort in Pakistani neighbouring tribal belt.

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