doi:10.3849/1802-7199

TAKING A SNAPSHOT

Discovering Escalation Prone Countries Through Structural Conditions and QCA

Kateřina FRIDRICHOVÁ, Adriana ILAVSKÁ

This paper introduces a method of conflict escalation prediction based on long-term structural conditions, drawn from open sources, and QCA (Qualitative Comparative analysis). The combination of the two components offers a model of prediction, which is comparable to other more sophisticated and resourced systems. Moreover, it offers a more sensitive estimation of an escalation.

Acknowledgements

The research was supported by the project VI20172020094 - Metodika predikce, včasného varování a prevence hrozeb plynoucích z regionálních ozbrojených konfliktů pro vnitřní bezpečnost ČR. The paper was written using a dataset further authors of which include prof. PhDr. Zdeněk Kříž, Ph.D., Mgr. Martin Chovančík, Ph.D., Mgr. Jana Urbanovská, Ph.D., Mgr. Hana Votradovcová, and Mgr. et Mgr. Vladimír Bízik.

Keywords

Prediction; Conflict Escalation; Structural Conditions; Early Warning; csQCA.


Title in English:

TAKING A SNAPSHOT
Discovering Escalation Prone Countries Through Structural Conditions and QCA

Title in Czech:

MOMENTKA
Použití strukturálních podmínek a QCA k odhalení zemí náchylných k eskalaci konfliktu

Type:

Article

Author(s):

Kateřina FRIDRICHOVÁ, Adriana ILAVSKÁ

Language:

English

Abstract:

English/Czech

Journal:

Obrana a strategie

Publisher:

University of Defence in Brno

ISSN:

ISSN 1214-6463 (print) and ISSN 1802-7199 (online)

DOI:

10.3849/1802-7199.20.2020.02.005-022

Issue:

Volume 20, Number 2 (December 2020)

Pages:

005-022

Received:

29.09.2020

Accepted:

16.11.2020

Published online:

16.12.2020

Created 16.12.2020 20:08:32 | read 642x | Frank

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tana  |  11.2.2021 11:40:20