Defence and strategy

Miloš BALABÁN, Oldřich KRULÍK, Vladimír KRULÍK, Jan LUDVÍK, Luděk MORAVEC, Antonín RAŠEK, Libor STEJSKAL

This article offers systematic view of a process of identification of security threats and, subsequently, their use in the making of strategic documents, notably the Security Strategy of the Czech Republic. It is not the aim of the authors to name or define such threats, but to present the process itself. It is paramount to any credible security strategy that it deals with the threat identification in the most precise fashion. The authors take reservations against the “catalogue” approach and claim the processes of prioritization and categorization to be essential for any policies derived from the security strategy, especially in times of economic need. It is also the 2011 final paper of the project “Trends, Risks, and Scenarios of the Security Developments in the World, Europe, and the Czech Republic – Impacts on the Policy and Security System of the Czech Republic” (TRS / VG20102013009). [1]

Ondřej URBÁNEK

The publication of the White Paper on Defence during 2011 initiated a new round of discussions regarding the future of the Czech defense sector. Whereas the White Paper on Defence introduces a normative scenario describing the desirable development of the sector, this paper aims to outline one of the possible alternatives of future development – outsourcing of foreign military operations. It identifies basic trends determining the development in this sector, summarizes the generally accepted scenario as presented in the White Paper on Defense and puts alternative scenarios of foreign military operation outsourcing in contrast to it. The scenarios are based on the “what if” method and include summaries of its possible indicators and consequences.

Yehoshua SOCOL, Moshe YANOVSKIY, Michael BRONSHTEIN

Nuclear warfare, being calamitous, is nevertheless, unlike popular perception, far from being apocalyptic. In the article, we consider possible scenarios of nuclear war in a multi-polar nuclear world, arguing that a democratic society has good chances of victory against a totalitarian nuclear-possessing state. Afterwards, we focus on two technical issues of primary importance – targeting doctrine and civil defense. We conclude that a steadfast and determined stance together with properly conceived and well planned policies for dealing with aggression is the price democratic societies must be willing to pay in order to effectively battle aggression at all levels.

Jiří SUCHÁNEK

The article analyses the evolution and the current state of radical Islam in China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Chinese government considers Islamic radicalism as a serious threat, in particular in the Xinjiang region, which borders on some states in Central Asia as well as Pakistan and Afghanistan. The purpose of this article is to describe and evaluate roots and historical development of significant groups, in particular the East Turkestan Islamic Movement – ETIM. In its next part, the article deals with the contemporary situation as well as the cooperation between Uyghur radicals and other radical Islamic movements, in particular al-Qaeda and Taliban, and their activities. The article concludes that contemporary Uyghur Islamic radicalism cannot be considered as a major security threat, since the activities of these groups have largely shifted to Pakistan and rather have the nature of a propaganda war.

Cezar VASILESCU

The paper explores the notion of cyber attack as a concept for understanding modern conflicts. It starts by elaborating a conceptual theoretical framework, observing that when it comes to cyber attacks, cyber war and cyber defense there are no internationally accepted definitions on the subject, mostly because of the relative recency of the terms. The second part analyzes the cyber realities of recent years, emphasizing the most advertised cyber attacks in the international mass media: Estonia (2007) and Georgia (2008), with a focus on two main lessons learned: how complicated is to define a cyber war and how difficult to defend against it. Crucial implications for world’s countries and the role of NATO in assuring an effective collective cyber defense are analyzed in the third part. The need for the development of strategic cyber defense documents (e.g. NATO Cyber Defense Policy, NATO Strategic Concept) is further examined. It is suggested that particular attention should be paid to the development of a procedure for clearly discriminating between events (cyber attacks, cyber war, cyber crime, or cyber terrorism), and to a procedure for the conduct of nation’s legitimate military/civil cyber response operations.