Hybrid Threats and the Development of NATO´s New Operational Concept

The article deals with aspects of the new emerging security challenges that military experts define as “hybrid threats”. They have arised from methods of insurgency and asymmetric warfare, and as a step-child of the 4th generation warfare constitute significant challenge for the Alliance and its global interests. Experience from current operations has demonstrated that these enemies can conduct hostile actions through broad array of conventional or non-conventional means, methods and procedures, having a favorable outcome even against the NATO force that is superior technologically and militarily. Cognition of the scale and complexity of these threats lead Alliance representatives to the development of an overarching operational concept for the NATO Military Contribution to Countering Hybrid Threats (MCCHT). This concept, still in draft, illustrates the unique challenges posed by current and future hybrid threats, and explains why these challenges may require NATO to adapt its strategy, structure and capabilities for the next twenty years.

15.12.2011 21:10:38 | read 15692x | posts: 2 | antonin.novotny | Full article

Afghanistan Ten Years After...

The article focuses on the analysis of the internal politics of Afghanistan after 2001 and evaluates the results of state- and nation-building. The emphasis on internal politics is the only possible way to understand the processes in the country and work out the strategy for the country after the planned withdrawal (or limitation) of foreign troops from the country. In this context, the fragmentation and deepening cleavages among various social strata in the country (ethnic, sub-ethnic) is considered to be a crucial determinant of the development in the country. Several power groups define diverse attitudes towards the character of the future Afghan state. These circumstances could lead to the new round of the military conflict after the removal of foreign troops which are considered as a negative factor by a large part of the Afghan elite, albeit they serve as one of the stabilization factors in the country. However, the international community has (and will have) limited tools and influence to prevent any prospective conflict in the country.

15.12.2011 21:15:01 | read 13213x | posts: 0 | antonin.novotny | Full article

Transformation of the German Armed Forces after the End of the Cold War

In July 2011 Germany abandoned conscription. This step is the most significant part of the ongoing reform of the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) and by no stretch also the greatest change in the entire history of the Bundeswehr. The current reform, however, is only the last one in the long line of attempts to adapt the Bundeswehr to post-Cold-War circumstances and missions. The German Armed Forces have been undergoing an almost uninterrupted process of transformation since the end of the Cold War. In the course of the last two decades the anticipated end-state of the reform has been changing accordingly with respect to the changing perception of strategic assumptions. The strategic reasoning behind the distinct reform attempts is to be analysed in this article.

15.12.2011 21:18:26 | read 10116x | posts: 0 | antonin.novotny | Full article

U.S. Missile Defence Site in Europe as an Aliance Security Dilemma

The main aim of this article is to provide a more solid theoretical anchor for numerous past and present debates about the various versions of American missile defence in Europe. The author claims that the neo-realism’s concept of alliance security dilemma is the most appropriate framework for Czech, Polish, Romanian, and EU-wide experts‘reflections and political decisions regarding the possible accepting of elements of American or NATO missile defence. Under appreciated explanatory power of the concept of the alliance‘s security dilemma is illustrated in the text on the case of the original Bush‘s plan of the so-called third pillar in Poland and the Czech Republic.

15.12.2011 21:21:58 - updated 16.12.2011 7:12:40 | read 10705x | posts: 0 | antonin.novotny | Full article

Predictioneer’s Game: the Collective Violence in Ecuador

The paper analyses collective violence in Ecuador from the end of September 2010. The situation was characterized as a Coup d'état when violent clashes between hostile camps were identified. The president was attacked by rebellious units of state police that had protested against the planned cuts of benefits and salaries in the law enforcement sector. The society was threatened by local riots, temporary anarchy and violent clashes that led to the declaration of state of emergency by president Correa. On the basis of empirical data, the prediction model is designed according to the analytical tool “Predictioneer’s Game“ defined by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. The prediction is aimed at the forecast of the stability of regime in the context of the events from the 30th September 2010.

15.12.2011 21:21:35 | read 15304x | posts: 0 | antonin.novotny | Full article

The Security-Development Nexus: a Typology, History and Implementation of Changing Paradigm

The article is a response to the contemporary state of research of the security-development nexus and attempts to analyze the heterogeneous area of its interpretations and implementations. It analyzes the ways and describes the development of interpretations of the security-development nexus. The text also offers empirical material to enable looking at the variety of effects. It shows that despite a broad interdisciplinary debate, three general attitudes have been generated. The first one is based on the idea that security is the prerequisite of development, the second one that development is the prerequisite of security, and the third one that security and development go hand in hand. The area of concepts appears to be wide and varied as well. The contemporary concepts differ mainly in whose development and whose security they take into account, and which one from these two values (development or security) is understood as more important and how it is interpreted (what is “security” and what is “development”). On the operational level it is clear, that the security-development nexus is not only an academic and theoretical reflection or pose, but that it also influences the practice and changes the national, as well as the international politics. The presented empirical material does not say anything about the size of the change and the number of actors affected, however, it shows that it is no marginal phenomenon, because it has affected important players in the international system as well as rules governing the system.

15.12.2011 21:23:45 | read 1037497x | posts: 876 | antonin.novotny | Full article

Comparison of the Use of PMCs’ Services by the Administrations of George W. Bush and Barack Obama

The article deals with the phenomenon of Private Military Companies (PMCs) and their utilization by the United States of America (US). Its objective is the comparison of the use of PMC services by the administrations of President George W. Bush and President Barack Obama, respectively. It specifically focuses on the following four areas: capacity (numbers of PMCs deployed and the number of their employees), funding (costs of PMC services), regulation (its forms and laws covering PMCs), control and monitoring (supervision of PMCs and their staff by relevant public bodies). The main finding is that there have been few major changes in the use of PMCs’ services, which contradicts president Obama‘s rhetoric both before and after he assumed office.

15.12.2011 21:25:11 - updated 16.12.2011 7:16:11 | read 15805x | posts: 0 | antonin.novotny | Full article
Created 15.12.2011 21:48:04 | read 9013x | antonin.novotny