Defence and strategy

Slavomír HORÁK

When Taliban rule was overthrown in autumn 2001 Afghanistan was to start a new pattern of peace-building process. However, experts on Afghanistan pointed out several problematic aspects of Afghan post-war society (criminalization, distribution of arms, disaster economy with narcotic production within failed state etc.). These problems determined the key tasks of both newly installed Afghan government and international community (often viewed as “strangers on Afghan soil”). The status of the above mentioned points are analyzed in the article within the chapters dealing with politics, economy, army, drugs, raising of military opposition and the role of outside players in the country. All of these aspects move around insolvable vicious circles and nobody is able to cleave them in its complexity. They also hamper any peace settlement in the country for a long-term perspective. The consequences of analyzed vicious circles for future development of Afghanistan seem to be rather pessimistic. Despite certain positive trends of peace-building process, the overall situation moves on to onward deterioration. The presence of foreign troops provokes more attacks from opposition field commanders. Western armies have limited maneuvering capabilities and they are not able to neutralized negative propaganda against themselves. However, it keeps at least some stability within the country and without them the Karzai’s regime will be probably overthrown. Legitimate government is not able to manage the country, but its fall would probably lead in the new round of internal conflict in the country.

Tomáš ZIPFEL

The article deals with the situation in Afghanistan and the possibilities of particular parties in the crisis. The initial part presents the current status which is characterized by increasing activities of opposition militia forces and by growing civilian and coalition casualties. The second part introduces possible strategies with respect to the different character of various opposition groups, represented by conservative-nationalistic formations that are a subject for possible negotiation as well as jihadist groups that have to be eliminated. The following section focuses at expected stance of ongoing US administration towards possible arrangement and potential US strategies of exit. The last passage of the article addresses the necessary measures for any successful solution of the Afghan issue.

Gabriel KOVÁCS

The paper addresses the risks and consequences of the suspension of the Russian Federation’s commitments stemming from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) on the process of arms control and the European security environment. It deals with the security dilemma and securitisation in general as well as with the assertive posture of Russia in the post-Soviet region, reminded through the Russian – Georgian conflict in August 2008. The role of the CFE Treaty as the cornerstone of the European security is elaborated as well as its importance for NATO. The paper deals with the negative consequences of the Russian suspension on the future of the CFE regime and European security environment. There are options suggested for eliminating the malicious consequences through promoting co-operation and confidence building between NATO and Russia, currently at freezing point, the worst state since the end of the Cold War. Should the benign measures fail to deliver, with the geopolitics back, adequate military capabilities to counter advanced adversary might be considered.

Petr ZELINKA

The insurgency in the Niger Delta has wider consequence then just for Nigeria (rising oil price as most sounding examples), this article will try to conceptualize the most influential and dangerous contemporary group in the region – the Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND). This will be done from a pragmatic point of view, bearing in mind the consequences which labels such as terrorism evoke. The work aims for more than to conceptualize the group but also to propose a counter-insurgency or counter-terrorist strategy, these will be based on the understanding the MEND via the conceptualization.

Vít ŠTAIF

The end of the Cold War meant transformation of the role of NATO from community raised for defense of participating member states to a group which manages wider tasks, particularly missions beyond its own area in the Balkans and Middle East. The USA have always considered NATO as its most important European ally, however, after the Cold War its role in the security policy of the USA has lost some of its importance. After international missions in the Balkans in the 90s some of the USA diplomats have begun to think that most of European part of NATO did not mean a reliable ally for the USA. The development after 11th September 2001 has shown that even such a strong state like the USA cannot act without allies, if it wants to lead a successful foreign policy.